A publication about the‘Toward joint muography and ground deformation monitoring for volcanic unrest assessment' has been published in the Journal of Applied Physics, with László Oláh as the first author.
The Volcanic Unrest Index (VUI) is an activity index introduced to semi-quantitatively assess the intensity of volcanic activity compared to historical activity levels. VUI is defined as the level of activity compared to the normally observed activity level. The VUI itself is not an eruption prediction tool; rather, it serves to communicate complex, large-scale monitoring data to society and provide input information for event tree models, particularly those applied to hazard level assessment. Using monthly muography data measured directly beneath the crater of Sakurajima, one of the world's most active volcanoes, SAR data measured around two adjacent craters, and gas observation data collected by the Japan Meteorological Agency at both craters, we quantitatively correlated observed density, surface uplift and subsidence, and volcanic gas flow rates from September 2018 to July 2023. In the table, the minimal activity (VUI 2) was defined as the point where the three monitoring data rates reached their maximum (September 2019 to December 2020). VUI 2 is associated with the period with the highest eruption frequency. Negligible activity (VUI 1) and no activity (VUI 0) were scaled linearly with VUI 2. This index can be incorporated into probabilistic hazard models to improve eruption forecasts and risk mitigation strategies.
Article about the paper in AIP Science: https://pubs.aip.org/aip/sci/article/2025/33/331106/3358766/Cosmic-rays…
